Tucson Didn’t Decline by Accident

I’m a second-generation Tucsonan.

This city raised my family. And today, it’s barely recognizable.

What we’re living with isn’t normal - and it isn’t inevitable. It is the result of leadership decisions.

Regina Romero took office as mayor in December 2019. Since then, Tucson has not merely struggled. It has deteriorated.

This isn’t opinion.

The numbers DON’T lie.

The Numbers

Homicides:

After 2019, homicides surged sharply, peaking early in Romero’s term and remaining well above pre-office levels. Even conservative comparisons show a 30- 35% increase from the year before she took office to recent years. These aren’t abstract statistics. These are people who didn’t make it home.

2019: 48 homicides

2024: 66 homicides

(Peak: 93 in 2021 — nearly double 2019)

Violent Crime:

Aggravated assaults have exceeded five-year averages. Random violence is no longer rare - it’s frequent enough that residents plan daily life around avoidance instead of freedom.

2019: ~5,600 reported aggravated assaults

2023–2024: ~6,800–7,000 reported aggravated assaults

(Above pre-2019 averages; remains elevated)

Motor Vehicle Theft & Carjackings:

Motor vehicle theft rose significantly during this administration. Carjackings - once shocking - are now common enough that nearly everyone knows someone affected. This is real Tucsonans, not headlines.

2019: ~5,300 vehicle thefts

2023: ~8,000+ vehicle thefts

(Increase of ~50%+ from pre-Romero year)

Homelessness:

City-reported data shows unsheltered homelessness exploded after 2019, including a documented 300% increase from 2019 to 2020, followed by persistently high numbers. Parks, washes, sidewalks, and transit corridors became encampments.

2019: ~1,200 total homeless (sheltered + unsheltered)

2025: 2,218 total homeless

Instead of real solutions, the city leaned on tents routed through nonprofits and called it compassion - while Tucson sat full of empty buildings that could have been repurposed into real shelter with dignity and safety. Tents didn’t solve homelessness. They normalized it.

Drugs & Overdoses:

Open drug use, overdoses, and drug-related emergency responses increased alongside permissive enforcement. Addiction isn’t being treated it’s being managed in public.

2019: ~250 overdose deaths

2023: ~450–500 overdose deaths

(Nearly doubled since pre-2020)

Housing & Cost of Living:

At the same time, housing became unaffordable for locals. Rents surged. Home prices jumped far beyond wage growth. Property taxes, utilities, and fees climbed. Small landlords and builders were pushed out, housing supply was restricted, and prices rose — exactly as economics predicts.

Median Home Price

2019: ~$220,000

2024: ~$335,000–$350,000

Median Rent

2019: ~$900–$1,000

2024: ~$1,400–$1,600

(Wage growth did NOT keep pace)

2019: Lower utility rates, fees, and tax burden

2024–2025:

• Higher water, trash, and utility costs

• Increased fees impacting small landlords & builders

• Reduced small-scale housing supply

Longtime Tucsonans were priced out of the city THEY built.

This Was a Choice

Tucson didn’t collapse because of bad luck or national trends alone. Cities face challenges - leadership determines outcomes.

We were told enforcement was cruel.

We were told standards were outdated.

We were told to be patient while the city unraveled.

But political correctness is not compassion.

Permissiveness is not mercy.

A government that refuses to enforce basic laws while violence rises, theft spreads, homelessness explodes, and housing becomes unattainable is not compassionate - it’s negligent.

This isn’t about party.

It isn’t about slogans.

It’s about results.

And the results are ruin.

What Comes Next

Do we continue down this path until locals leave and Tucson becomes a smaller skid row - hollowed out, priced out, and managed into decline?

Or do we finally say enough?

When blood is on the hands of government, the people are not wrong for demanding change. Silence is not neutrality. Apathy is not peace. And obedience to failure is not virtue.

The answer isn’t chaos.

It’s accountability.

Records. Oversight. Votes. Recalls. Sustained civic pressure.

Tucson deserves leadership that protects life, restores order, supports real growth, and understands that compassion without responsibility is abandonment.

Under this administration, decline wasn’t just tolerated. Ruin was allowed to take root.

Jordan Ochoa

Independent Journalist

RISN

#crimestats #tucson #littleskidrow #homelessness